Latin America Rates Turn Downward After September Peak

After months of sustained increases, ocean freight rates from Asia to Latin America reached their peak in early September and have since begun to decline. Mexico and West Coast South America are experiencing faster rate corrections compared with East Coast South America, where space remains more constrained due to its connection with U.S. East Coast capacity dynamics. Caribbean rates have declined only moderately, as tight allocation on U.S. East Coast services continues to limit available space. With China’s Golden Week holiday approaching in late September and early October, carriers are building advance cargo volumes while managing capacity through scheduled blank sailings across the network.

To help you better understand the current market dynamics and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest observations and outlook for the second half of September.

Rate Trend for Second Half of September

• Freight rates peaked during the first week of September and have entered a downward trend that is expected to continue through the remainder of the month. Mexico and West Coast South America lanes are declining at a faster pace and by a larger margin compared with East Coast South America, reflecting the differentiated supply-demand balance across the network and the varying degrees of space availability carriers are managing.
• Mexico has recorded the sharpest rate decline among all Latin America trade lanes, supported by ample space availability and more favorable carrier rate-application policies. Carriers are competing aggressively for Mexico-bound cargo, particularly for containers bundled with inland trucking services, creating downward pricing pressure as the month progresses.
• East Coast South America rates are declining at a slower pace than other lanes, with the underlying reason being the market’s continued connection to U.S. East Coast space dynamics. Allocation discipline remains tighter on East Coast South America services, limiting the extent of rate softening despite the broader network trend.
• Caribbean rate corrections have been limited compared with other Latin America destinations. Space availability on Caribbean services remains closely tied to U.S. East Coast capacity conditions, and carriers continue managing allocation selectively, resulting in relatively tight space and more stable pricing through the second half of September.
• For partners handling larger-volume shipments or project cargo to Latin America destinations, we encourage direct engagement with our pricing team. Market conditions remain negotiable depending on shipment profile and routing requirements, and more competitive solutions may be available as carriers actively pursue cargo to improve vessel utilization during this softening period.

Capacity Outlook and Service Developments

• Space availability in the Mexico market remains ample through the second half of September, with carriers continuing to compete aggressively for cargo. Containers bundled with carriers’ inland trucking services are particularly preferred, with Hapag-Lloyd’s bundled policy among the more attractive options currently available to partners managing Mexico-bound shipments.
• Ocean Alliance is currently omitting Shanghai and Ningbo port calls on a bi-weekly basis across its Latin America services. Partners should note that any rolled cargo may face delays of up to two weeks, and voyage-by-voyage verification after booking confirmation is recommended to identify potential port omissions, changes of port call or delayed departures.
• Multiple blank sailings are scheduled for weeks 39 through 41 in connection with China’s Golden Week holiday:
  • Week 40 East Coast South America: OOCL TLA1, CMA SEAS, COSCO ESA, EMC ESA, PIL ES1 and YML SA3 services
  • Weeks 39 and 41 West Coast South America: PIL WS2, COSCO WSA2, EMC WSA2, Wan Hai ASA and YML SA6 services
  • Week 40 West Coast South America: PIL WS6, EMC WSA6, Wan Hai AS2 and YML SA8 services
• According to COSCO and OOCL, large capacity vessels are expected to resume operations during the first week following the Golden Week holiday. The blank sailing programme reflects carriers’ strategy to manage capacity during the holiday period while building advance cargo volumes ahead of the factory closures.
• ZIM and Hapag-Lloyd have jointly launched an enhanced service to East Coast South America, operating as ZIM’s ZFS service in cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd’s AS3. Market uptake has been strong, with space on the maiden voyage nearly sold out. The service offers record transit times from Asia to Brazil’s Santa Catarina and Paraná states, with North China to Itajai in 32 days, Shenzhen to Itajai in 27 days, and Santos to Shanghai export in 26 days, following an optimized port rotation that improves coastal efficiency within Brazil.
• For time-sensitive cargo moving during the second half of September, we recommend booking space one to two weeks in advance and allowing at least one additional week of buffer time. Carriers continue alternating port calls between Shanghai and Ningbo, and schedule delays remain significant through the period, requiring close monitoring of voyage-specific schedule changes after booking confirmation.

Operational Developments and Market Drivers

• Carriers are alternating port calls between Shanghai and Ningbo across Latin America services, with significant schedule delays expected to persist through the second half of September. This operational pattern is affecting schedule performance and requiring partners to maintain flexible booking strategies, particularly for cargo with tight delivery requirements at destination.
• China’s Golden Week holiday in late September and early October is driving advance cargo buildup across the network. Carriers are managing this pre-holiday demand through the scheduled blank sailing programme for weeks 39 through 41, balancing space availability with the need to maintain vessel utilization ahead of the factory closures.
• The ZIM and Hapag-Lloyd joint service launch represents a meaningful capacity addition to the East Coast South America market. The enhanced port rotation, which sequences Rio Grande, Itajai, Paranagua, Rio de Janeiro and Santos on the Brazil coastal leg, delivers improved efficiency for Santa Catarina and Paraná states while maintaining competitive transit times to other major Brazilian gateways.
• Space conditions across the Latin America network reflect the broader shift from peak-season tightness to a more balanced environment. Mexico’s ample space and aggressive carrier competition contrast with the more selective allocation discipline carriers maintain on East Coast South America and Caribbean services, creating differentiated booking dynamics across the trade lanes.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment adjustments, blank sailing schedules and service developments across the Latin America trade. Our teams in China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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