Asia Europe Spot Rates Extend Decline Toward National Holiday
September 14, 2026
The Asia-Europe trade continues its sustained rate correction through mid-September, with spot rates declining progressively across all major alliances as carriers adjust pricing strategies ahead of the National Day holiday period. Week 38 average rates have dropped substantially, with actual transaction levels now settling at lower levels after settlement discounts across multiple carriers. The downward trajectory reflects softer demand acceptance entering the traditional autumn off-season, with carriers balancing pricing discipline against vessel utilization targets while further adjustments remain possible before the holiday window. Simultaneously, Suez Canal resumption continues advancing, with COSCO joining the transition as its AEM3 service begins westbound Suez transit from early September, marking the first Chinese carrier to structurally return to the canal and signaling broader industry confidence in the routing shift.
To help you better understand the current market environment and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest market observations and outlook for the second half of September.
Rate Direction and Carrier Pricing Strategy
GEMINI alliance average rates have declined substantially, with Maersk Week 39 spot rates showing a moderate week-on-week reduction. Settlement-stage discounts bring actual transaction levels lower, establishing a new floor alongside MSC’s allocation pricing. Index-linked quotes have similarly adjusted downward, while Hapag-Lloyd online quotations reflect the alliance’s coordinated pricing recalibration.
Ocean Alliance carriers maintain rates at higher levels, though downward pressure is evident across the alliance. CMA CGM online rates have reduced, while COSCO and OOCL quotations show similar adjustments. Evergreen Marine rates demonstrate the alliance’s efforts to maintain pricing discipline while adjusting to softer market acceptance.
Premier Alliance spot rates average at lower levels, with HMM Week 38 FAK quotations showing competitive positioning. Yang Ming’s primary FE4 service and ONE East China ports FE3/FE4 services offer rates for volume commitments above 10 TEU. Notably, ONE Ningbo FAK rates represent the lowest quoted level in the current market, demonstrating continued commercial flexibility for cargo commitments.
MSC has adjusted its September rates across multiple tiers. This multi-tier structure, alongside Maersk’s post-discount levels, jointly establishes the current spot rate floor and signals carriers’ active pursuit of vessel utilization optimization.
The correction trajectory continues reflecting September-October off-season fundamentals, with the framework of Ocean Alliance maintaining upper pricing bounds and Premier Alliance plus MSC allocation rates defining lower bounds persisting, though the gap between alliances has narrowed as both adjust downward synchronously. Carriers’ rate reduction pace suggests further adjustments remain possible through late September ahead of the National Day holiday period.
Overseas agents handling price-sensitive opportunities are encouraged to engage with us early, as more competitive solutions may become available during the pre-holiday adjustment window. Market conditions remain negotiable, and our pricing team is available to discuss tailored solutions for larger-volume or project cargo commitments.
Capacity Outlook and Blank Sailing Strategy
September East China to Europe base capacity averages 322,000 TEU weekly according to our latest schedule review, declining to 293,000 TEU in October before recovering to 319,000 TEU in November. The October reduction of 9% reflects concentrated blank sailing activity around the National Day holiday period rather than structural capacity withdrawal.
National Day blank sailing activity totals 11 cancellations across Weeks 40-42, distributed as 2, 7, and 2 blank sailings respectively. This represents a 21% reduction compared to 2025’s 14 cancellations but remains significantly elevated versus 2024 normal levels. The structural pattern shows sharp concentration in post-holiday Week 41, which carries 7 blank sailings representing the majority of the holiday window’s total cancellations, with Weeks 40 and 42 carrying only sporadic cancellations on both sides.
Week 41 effective capacity compresses to 205,000 TEU, the lowest level of the three-month forecast period, as carriers implement concentrated capacity control during the cargo restart period following the holiday. The multi-alliance coordination reflects carriers’ explicit intent to protect pricing discipline when booking momentum resumes, consistent with 2025’s pattern of peak capacity reduction shifting to the post-holiday second week.
Capacity recovers progressively from Week 42 onward as carriers restore normal service patterns. The recovery trajectory suggests carriers are balancing holiday-period discipline with fourth-quarter demand expectations, though the sustained rate correction through September indicates demand-side support remains challenging to secure given seasonal fundamentals.
Suez Canal Resumption and Operational Developments
COSCO has begun westbound Suez Canal transit on its AEM3 service, with vessel COSCO SHIPPING ROSE voyage 045W departing Shanghai in early September marking the first Chinese carrier to structurally return to the canal. This follows Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM’s earlier resumptions and signals broader industry confidence in current security conditions, with resumption advancing from case-by-case exploration to systematic implementation across multiple carriers.
CMA CGM’s FAL3 service has partially resumed westbound Suez transit, with CMA CGM SAINT GERMAIN completing passage in late August and CMA CGM ZHENG HE plus CMA CGM ANTOINE DE SAINT EXUPERY scheduled for near-term transit. The service’s eastbound return leg has fully resumed canal transit, demonstrating the carrier’s phased approach to resumption with directional risk assessment.
Current resumption status across Asia-Mediterranean services shows 6 of 18 tracked services fully resumed, 3 partially resumed through individual voyages or eastbound-only transit, and 9 still routing via Cape of Good Hope. For Asia-Northwest Europe services, only 1 of 20 tracked services has fully resumed, with 2 partially resumed and 17 continuing Cape routing, indicating Mediterranean lanes are advancing resumption more rapidly than North Europe corridors.
The accelerating resumption pace indicates current security conditions may have recovered to relatively high levels, with carriers demonstrating increased confidence through systematic rather than exploratory transit decisions. From a medium-to-long term perspective, agents should monitor potential downward rate pressure from additional capacity release as more services transition back to Suez routing, which offers shorter transit times and lower fuel costs compared to Cape diversions.
Middle East geopolitical tensions continue with dual chokepoint pressure, as US-Iran confrontation intensifies at Hormuz Strait with 94 vessels rerouted and direct strikes on Iranian tankers, while Houthi forces captured Mandeb northern entrance ports including Mocha, Dhubab, Perim Island and Hanish Islands during September 10-11. However, Houthi forces reiterated their embargo targets only Saudi-affiliated vessels, resulting in limited impact on broader Suez Canal resumption progress for commercial shipping.
RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment adjustments around the National Day period, Suez Canal resumption developments and regional security conditions closely. Our EMEA, Intra-Asia and Oceania Trade teams remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve throughout the second half of September.
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