Asia to North America Transpacific Market Update Early March

As the market transitions out of the Chinese New Year slowdown, the Transpacific trade is gradually moving back toward normal operating conditions. Cargo volumes that were accumulated prior to the holiday have largely been absorbed by carriers, and operational conditions across most U.S. gateways have stabilized. However, several structural factors — including upcoming contract negotiations, policy changes in the U.S. tariff regime, and shifting capacity deployment — are shaping the outlook for the second half of March.

Below is our latest market observation from the origin side to help you plan shipments and manage expectations with your customers.

Rate Trend – Early March Adjustment and Anticipated Mid-Month Increase

• Freight levels for the first half of March have shown an upward adjustment following a brief surge of cargo prior to the Chinese New Year holidays. Carriers successfully pushed through a moderate General Rate Increase at the beginning of March, partially reversing the softer levels seen in February.
• Another round of GRI is expected around mid-March as carriers begin positioning themselves ahead of the upcoming Transpacific contract negotiation season. Historically, carriers attempt to establish a higher spot market baseline during this period to strengthen their bargaining position with BCOs.
• The price spread between Ocean Alliance carriers and non-Ocean Alliance operators has narrowed compared to previous months. This suggests a more balanced competitive environment as carriers attempt to stabilize market levels rather than engage in aggressive undercutting.
• Premium service products remain available in the market for urgent cargo requiring guaranteed loading or faster transit options, particularly on select expedited loops.

Capacity Outlook – Blank Sailings and Regional Space Conditions

• Overall rollover risks that were seen before the holiday period have eased significantly as backlogged cargo has been digested by the market. Most gateways are currently operating under manageable load factors.
• The Pacific Northwest corridor remains comparatively tighter than other gateways during the first half of March due to the concentration of blank sailings affecting this lane earlier in the month.
• The U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast corridors currently show relatively open space availability, with several carriers actively seeking additional cargo support to optimize vessel utilization.
• The Pacific Southwest remains generally open, although space allocation can still vary depending on individual services and vessel load factors, so bookings should continue to be confirmed on a case-by-case basis.
• Across Weeks 10–13, carriers have implemented approximately twenty blank sailings across the Transpacific trade. The largest disruption occurred in Week 10, which saw the majority of cancellations affecting PNW and PSW loops.
• Production activity in China is gradually resuming after the Lantern Festival. As factories return to normal operations, export demand is expected to recover progressively toward the latter half of March, which could tighten capacity conditions again.

Other Market Drivers – Policy Changes and Macro Developments

• Recent adjustments to the U.S. tariff framework have introduced new dynamics to the trade environment. The previously imposed IEEPA tariffs have been terminated, while a new tariff mechanism under Section 122 has been implemented.
• The new Section 122 tariff applies at a fixed percentage on top of existing base duties, while Section 232 tariffs on products such as steel, aluminum, and certain automotive components remain in force.
• It is important to note that the Section 122 and Section 232 tariffs are mutually exclusive and cannot be stacked together, although operational implementation remains inconsistent as the CBP ACE system continues to update.
• The broader macroeconomic environment remains relatively stable. U.S. consumer demand has shown moderate resilience, supported by continued retail inventory replenishment and stable labor market conditions, though importers remain cautious amid evolving trade policies.
• With the Transpacific service contracts entering negotiation season, both carriers and large BCOs are carefully monitoring market conditions to determine their annual procurement strategies. This period often results in short-term volatility in spot market pricing.

We will continue to closely monitor developments across the Transpacific trade and share updates as market conditions evolve. Our trade team across China and Southeast Asia remains in regular communication with carriers to ensure that we maintain reliable space options and competitive solutions for your shipments.

Please feel free to reach out to us anytime if you need specific support or market insights for your upcoming shipments.

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