Transpacific Rates Hold Elevated Levels as Golden Week Backlog Clears

The Transpacific market enters the first half of October with rates consolidating at elevated levels following consecutive gains through the third quarter. While the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index showed a modest 0.66% decline on September 30, rates remain well-supported by port congestion, a high blank sailing ratio around Golden Week, and reduced effective capacity. Space conditions have tightened considerably for early October sailings, with most services fully booked and facing rollover risks, though the backlog is expected to clear by the second half of the month as factory operations resume and blank sailing intensity moderates.

To help you better understand the current market and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest market observations and outlook.

Rate Direction and Pricing Stability

• Transpacific rates remain at high levels despite a slight correction in late September, with modest declines indicating high-level consolidation after the sharp escalation through the second and third quarters, mainly supported by continued port congestion and capacity discipline around the Golden Week period.
• Carriers have extended current rate levels to the first half of October, with FAK guideline rates holding at substantially elevated levels for both U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast. This rate stability reflects carriers’ continued pricing discipline as the market transitions through the post-Golden Week period, with space remaining tight and allocation control still in effect across most services.
• Peak Season Surcharges remain elevated and have been extended to the first half of October. The extension demonstrates carriers’ ongoing efforts to support the rate structure during the traditional peak season window despite the Golden Week factory closures.
• Carriers are prioritizing light cargo and offering spot rate discounts to U.S. East Coast and Gulf destinations for certain booking profiles, with some September rate offers extended to the first half of October. This presents opportunities for partners with price-sensitive cargo and routing flexibility to secure more competitive solutions, particularly as space begins to open following the Golden Week backlog clearance.
• Overseas agents with larger-volume opportunities or project cargo are encouraged to engage with us early. While carriers have maintained elevated rate levels, market conditions remain negotiable for certain cargo profiles, and tailored solutions continue to be available where booking volumes and routing flexibility support competitive pricing.

Capacity Deployment and Space Situation

• Blank sailing activity remains elevated around the Golden Week period, with 36 cancellations scheduled from September 28 to October 18, averaging 12 per week. Pacific Southwest accounts for the largest share at 39% (14 total cancellations), followed by U.S. East Coast at 25% (9 cancellations), while Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance together represent 89% of all blank sailings, demonstrating coordinated capacity management across the major alliances.
• Blank sailing intensity peaked at 15 cancellations during September 28 to October 4, declined to 9 in the following week, and rebounded to 12 during October 12-18. This pattern reflects carriers’ strategy to align capacity with the expected demand drop during the Golden Week factory closures, with capacity gradually returning as production resumes in the second half of October.
• Space remains tight for the first half of October, with most sailings fully booked and facing rollover risks as carriers work through the pre-Golden Week booking backlog. According to our latest carrier schedules, the backlog is expected to take until the second half of October to clear, as factory operations normalize and blank sailing intensity moderates from the elevated Golden Week levels.
• Premier Alliance temporarily replaced the Shanghai call with Ningbo on the PS4 service through mid-November, while multiple EC2 and EC4 sailings will omit Shanghai through the end of October for schedule recovery. Partners with Shanghai origin cargo should coordinate early with our operations teams to confirm routing and space availability during this period.
• Equipment shortages persist across the trade, particularly for 45HQ and 40HQ containers, adding to the space constraints as carriers manage equipment positioning around the Golden Week period. Early booking and flexible equipment planning will remain key to securing space and minimizing rollover risk through mid-October.
• SML’s CPX network is gradually normalizing, with Busan westbound direct calls resuming from SM BUSAN 2605W and Shanghai direct calls resuming from SM KWANYANG 2607E, though Ningbo was omitted on SM KWANYANG 2607E due to a delay exceeding 10 days. Affected Long Beach and Portland cargo is being transshipped via Pusan on SM MUMBAI 2607E.

Operational Developments and Trade Policy Updates

• Panama Canal conditions have continued to improve, with Gatun Lake rising to 84.79 feet as of September 28. The Panama Canal Authority increased the maximum authorized Neopanamax draft from 48.0 feet to 49.0 feet effective immediately, and will add one additional Neopanamax booking slot from October 15, increasing total Canal capacity from 32 to 33 vessels per day. Despite the improvement, confirmed reservations remain essential as the Canal watershed continues to face an underlying water deficit.
• The space situation from India has eased following the rerouting adjustment via the Suez Canal, providing improved schedule consistency and transit times for South Asia origin cargo moving to U.S. destinations. This routing development offers partners with India origin shipments more reliable capacity options as the market transitions into the fourth quarter.
• The U.S. and China have extended the current trade truce through January 10, 2027, providing additional time for tariff negotiations. Both countries have each recommended approximately 30 billion in non-sensitive goods for more favorable tariff treatment, totaling around 60 billion in two-way trade, though no final tariff rate or effective date has been announced as of September 30. The extension provides continued stability for trade planning as negotiations progress.
• MSC suspended its pre-charge chassis usage policy, and customers may contact MSC US to request a return of the Chassis Usage Charge where applicable. Partners should verify chassis arrangements with MSC directly when evaluating routing options.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment patterns, blank sailing adjustments and operational developments across the Transpacific trade. Our teams across China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for shipments during the post-Golden Week period. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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