Transpacific Market Balances Rate Gains with Softening Demand Signals

The Transpacific market enters the first half of August with carriers having successfully implemented a substantial General Rate Increase on August 1, though underlying demand signals suggest softer conditions than anticipated. While the increase was applied across both coasts, recent index movements indicate growing downward pressure on spot rates, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index edging down and the U.S. West Coast settled-rate index falling sharply by 15.9% week on week. Capacity remains relatively sufficient overall, though carriers are deploying selective blank sailings concentrated in mid- and late August to support utilization and protect rate levels. Equipment shortages have emerged at certain inland feeder points, tightening shipper-owned container inventory and pushing up container-use charges.

To help you better understand the current market and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest market observations and outlook.

Rate Direction and Market Pricing Trend

• Carriers successfully implemented the August 1 General Rate Increase with substantial increases applied to both U.S. West Coast and U.S. East Coast shipments. Post-increase FAK rate levels have moved higher, though marketing rates are running lower than published FAK levels, reflecting the need to secure bookings in a softer demand environment.
• Market acceptance for the increase has been more tepid than carriers anticipated. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has begun edging down, and the U.S. West Coast settled-rate index dropped 15.9% week on week in late July, signaling increasing downward pressure on Transpacific spot rates despite the successful implementation of the General Rate Increase.
• Peak Season Surcharge levels have been adjusted, with carriers announcing an overall upward adjustment effective from August 15, aligning with the mid-month blank sailing concentration as part of their strategy to support rate levels during the traditional peak season.
• Carriers are implementing Panama Canal surcharges on Asia to U.S. East Coast and Gulf shipments from mid-August, addressing higher canal transit costs and potential water-management constraints ahead of the dry season and possible El Niño conditions. The surcharges have been incorporated into our quotations and will take effect from mid-August to early September depending on the carrier.
• ONE is implementing a Heavy Weight Surcharge from late August for U.S. East Coast shipments, addressing the operational cost of handling overweight cargo on East Coast services.
• Overseas agents with larger-volume opportunities or project cargo are encouraged to engage with us early. While carriers have implemented substantial increases, market conditions remain negotiable for certain cargo profiles, and competitive solutions continue to be available where booking volumes and routing flexibility support tailored pricing.

Capacity and Space Forecast

• A total of 14 blank sailings are scheduled across the Transpacific network during August, mainly concentrated in the weeks of August 10-16 and August 24-30, with 6 cancellations recorded in each of these periods. This represents selective capacity control as carriers work to support utilization and freight rates in the face of softer demand signals.
• U.S. East Coast services carry the highest blank sailing count with 5 cancellations spread across August, of which 4 are attributed to Ocean Alliance. Pacific Southwest records only 2 blank sailings during the month, reflecting the recent increase in West Coast capacity deployment. Pacific Northwest accounts for 3 cancellations, while Gulf Coast services carry 2 blank sailings.
• Space allocation generally follows 7:3 and 6:4 ratios across the trade. West Coast space remains ample, while U.S. East Coast, Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest capacity has improved compared with July conditions, providing better booking flexibility for these gateways as we move into the first half of August.
• Gemini Cooperation has updated Hapag-Lloyd’s WC5 service and Maersk’s TP7 service with direct calling from Ningbo to Oakland, enhancing transit times for North China export cargo destined for the Pacific Southwest gateway.
• Equipment shortages have emerged with some carriers, particularly at inland points served via feeder connections. This has tightened inventory of shipper-owned containers and pushed up container-use charges. The constraint is localized to inland feeder-served locations rather than mainline ports, though it affects booking planning for cargo originating from these interior points.

Tariff Developments and Fuel Cost Pressures

• Forced Labor Section 301 tariffs were implemented on July 24, adding substantial duties on goods from multiple Asian sourcing origins. Mainland China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand are subject to an additional 12.5% duty, while Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and India face a 10% duty, with certain product exemptions applying. This represents a significant shift in the tariff landscape affecting sourcing decisions across the region.
• Section 122 global tariff at 10% expired on July 24 and has been replaced by the new Forced Labor Section 301 tariffs. This transition marks a move from a blanket global tariff to origin-specific forced-labor-related duties, with implications for landed cost calculations and sourcing strategy.
• China Section 301 tariffs remain in effect, while potential U.S.-China Board of Trade tariff reductions remain under consultation with no final product list or effective date announced yet. Anti-Dumping/Countervailing Duty and Section 232 tariffs continue to apply depending on specific product classification.
• Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to drive fuel price volatility. Crude oil and marine bunker prices rose again in late July, prompting some carriers to announce or consider adjustments to their Emergency Fuel Surcharges or related Bunker Adjustment Factors in August. This adds further upward cost pressure on ocean freight operations during a period when spot rate acceptance is weakening.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing direction, capacity deployment adjustments, blank sailing patterns and regulatory developments across the Transpacific trade. Our teams across China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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