Transpacific Market Pulse First Half of December Update

Heading into the mid-December period, the mid-December window, the Asia export market continues to show mixed signals across pricing, capacity, and demand fundamentals. Our objective is to provide clear visibility to our overseas partners so expectations are aligned and you better understand the reasoning behind the rates offered at origin. Below is the latest market view combining insights from our trade team and the wider macroeconomic landscape.

Rate Trend – What to Expect for the Upcoming Half of December

• Most carriers remain open for bookings on all routings, particularly to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf, reflecting softer demand and the need to capture volume before year-end
• GRI levels have weakened significantly: the initial USD 1,500 per-box increase filed by several carriers has tapered to roughly USD 500, and only applicable during the first week of December
• An additional GRI of USD 200/40HQ was planned for the second week, but given current booking sentiment and carrier discipline, the likelihood of implementation is low
• Some carriers have extended late-November rates into early December to protect their market share or drive loadings on under-utilised vessel
• BCO export momentum has slowed as most U.S. retailers hold sufficient inventory, delaying procurement until closer to the Chinese New Year cycle, which may push the next significant demand wave into mid-January

Capacity Forecast – Deployment Shifts & Service Adjustments

• Despite overall open space, carriers are beginning to make capacity corrections: CMA and a few others are deploying smaller vessels—some with nearly a 40% reduction in slots—to manage utilisation and keep market rates from free-falling
• Blank sailings remain a key mechanism for balancing supply. For the coming period, 16 blank sailings have been filed across major Transpacific strings, including:
  – Hawaii: 1
  – PNW: 2
  – PSW: 6
  – USEC: 7
• These blank sailings, combined with reduced-size vessels, are expected to keep supply moderately tight on certain weeks despite demand remaining soft
• Some carriers with early-January CNY deployment plans are reviewing potential consolidation of sailings, especially on PSW and Gulf routes where utilisation is inconsistent
• Upon the Suez Canal’s reopening in 2026, capacity efficiency is expected to rise, as faster vessel turnaround times will eventually feed more slots into the Asia–USEC rades; however, the near-term impact remains limited, and the market continues to operate under existing constraints
• Alliance partners are also reassessing slot-sharing allocations for Q1 2026 to stabilise rate levels—particularly for USEC, where the booking window is the most open

Other Factors Influencing the Market

• Macroeconomic sentiment in the U.S. is mixed: retail sales remain steady but not strong, while restocking cycles continue to shift toward shorter, more flexible procurement patterns; this is contributing to slower BCO export commitments in December
• S. inflation data recently trended slightly lower, supporting expectations that the Fed may begin rate cuts in 2026; however, higher financing costs in the past year mean many importers remain cautious with inventory planning
• Port operations across major U.S. gateways remain stable with no major congestion. Labour conditions have also stabilised following earlier uncertainties around contract renewals
• Seasonal weather patterns in North Asia have affected sailing reliability in pockets, which may cause week-to-week variability in schedule integrity

RS Logistics will continue to monitor the market closely—including rate filings, capacity adjustments, alliance announcements, and any operational developments—and keep you updated with timely insights. Should you require further clarification or support for your shipments, our team will be ready to assist.

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