Mid-December brings weaker demand and tighter capacity control across the Asia–LATAM trade, leading to more fragmented pricing signals. This update consolidates the latest origin-side insights from our trade team together with broader macroeconomic observations, providing our overseas partners with a clearer view of rate expectations, space conditions, and operational developments for the upcoming weeks.
Rate Trend for the Upcoming Half of the Month
Carriers’ early December GRI filings (USD 1,000/box from 1 Dec) were not fully realised in the market. Compared with late November levels, rates only saw a mild upward movement during the first half of December, and current indications suggest a gradual correction in the coming two weeks.
Market pricing remains inconsistent, with certain ultra-low offers seen through online booking portals or small carriers using aggressive tactics to capture marginal cargo. This contributes to volatility and makes the market less predictable.
Carriers continue to request volume, especially for larger consolidated shipments. There is still flexibility for negotiations on sizeable lots, given space is generally adequate in early December and rate increases are not strongly supported by underlying demand.
Capacity Forecast
MX & West Coast South America (WCSA):
• ZIM’s ZAT service has only one sailing (MELINA – BN1) scheduled for early December, with continued blank sailings throughout the second half of the month.
• COSCO/CMA/OOCL (WSA3/ACSA2/TLP1) will blank a 9,000-TEU vessel in the second week of December.
• COSCO/CMA/OOCL (WSA4/ASCA1/TLP2) will blank a 7,000-TEU vessel during the same period.
• COSCO/OOCL (WS5/TLP5) will blank a 5,000-TEU vessel in week two.
• COSCO/OOCL (WS8/TLP8) will suspend sailings for four consecutive weeks, operating only from Qingdao and Shanghai. This will notably tighten outbound space from North China, especially Qingdao.
ECSA:
• CMA’s SEAS3 self-operated service has been suspended temporarily, though the broader market impact remains limited due to available alternative capacity.
• Overall, approaching Christmas and New Year, demand remains too weak to sustain any substantial rate increases. First-half December has relatively limited blank sailings, but capacity will tighten in the second half—particularly for WCSA services where multiple carriers are reducing sailings to support rate levels.
Other Factors Influencing the Market
Macro demand: LATAM’s economic environment remains mixed. Mexico continues to show steadier import demand supported by nearshoring and stable domestic consumption, while several South American markets face inflationary pressure and currency volatility, reducing their appetite for imports from Asia.
Seasonal slowdown: With the holiday period approaching, importers are operating conservatively and largely relying on existing inventory. This reduces short-term uplift in bookings from Asia.
Port & terminal operations:
• MX ZLO: Import truck handling times have improved to within 48 hours. Rail allocation cycles have shortened from eight days to seven, improving terminal flow.
• CO BUN: Although route blockages have been resolved, ongoing issues persist—port congestion, long truck appointment delays and equipment shortages are affecting operations.
• AR BUE: Severe congestion continues, causing delays and reduced operational efficiency for inbound and outbound flows.
• **CR CAL:**Also experiencing significant congestion, contributing to delays in regional feeder connectivity.
Global conditions: Inflation in the U.S. and parts of LATAM has moderated, but demand recovery remains cautious. China’s manufacturing activity shows early signs of stabilisation, but export orders into LATAM continue to fluctuate, affecting overall outbound volumes.
RS Logistics will continue to monitor the Asia–LATAM market closely, tracking rate movements, carrier deployment changes, operational conditions, and macroeconomic developments. Our teams across China and Southeast Asia are committed to providing timely updates and supporting you with data-driven insights and reliable solutions as the market evolves.
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