Transpacific Market Update — H2 November Rate & Capacity Outlook

Moving into the second half of November, we would like to provide a concise market update for Asia exports to the Far West (U.S. & Canada). The purpose of this newsletter is to ensure our overseas partners have clear visibility on current rate momentum, space situation and upcoming dynamics that may influence pricing or booking performance. With rates approaching seasonal lows and carriers actively soliciting support, expectation management during this period becomes especially important for both quotations and client planning.

Weakening Momentum with Potential GRI Ahead

• Spot levels to both USWC and USEC are showing further downwards traction compared with early November, driven by soft booking intake across e-commerce and BCO sectors
• Rates continue to trend closer to carriers’ cost thresholds, prompting discussions about restoring pricing power — several lines are signalling a possible GRI implementation effective 1 December
• Even OA carriers are showing unusually proactive support for cargo intake during the latter half of the month, underscoring the competitive pricing environment
• Given the likelihood of December GRI, we recommend encouraging customers to finalise bookings within November rather than delaying into early December

Space Widely Available but Blank Sailings Increasing

• Most carriers are now fully open for bookings across all routings and aggressively competing for volumes during the back half of November
• Despite sufficient capacity, selective blank sailings continue to be deployed as carriers attempt to align supply with softer demand — current blank sailing count for H2 November totals 20 sailings, broken down as:
  – PSW: 8
  – USEC: 7
  – PNW: 3
  – GULF: 1
  – HAWAII: 1
• While space is open on a majority of services, blank sailings may cause schedule gaps and longer waiting intervals on specific loops; early booking remains beneficial where schedule reliability is a customer priority

Consumer Demand & Seasonal Cycle

• E-commerce and BCO volumes are noticeably weaker in the second half of November as much of the holiday cargo has already sailed, reducing the volume push typically observed before Black Friday/Cyber Monday
• S. consumer sentiment remains steady but spending is increasingly cautious, influenced by inflation fatigue and high interest rates — impacting replenishment cycles for importers
• The traditional lull after Thanksgiving is expected to extend into early December, reinforcing the possibility that carriers may use GRI + blank sailings to prevent rates from falling further

RS Logistics continues to monitor weekly booking performance, carrier behaviour, rate actions and blank sailing updates very closely. Our trade team will share rate movement summaries and booking status with you on a regular basis so that quotations and customer discussions remain aligned with real-time market conditions.

Should you require deeper lane-to-lane visibility or early guidance on potential post-December rate direction, please feel free to reach out to our team anytime.

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