Latin America Rates Firm Through Late October on Tight Space and Consecutive Rate Increases

Following China’s Golden Week holiday, carriers continue working through accumulated cargo backlogs while vessel space remains relatively tight for the second half of October. With no significant additional capacity deployed throughout the month, bookings on many services have already extended into the final week of October. Carriers have announced consecutive rate increases for Mexico and West Coast South America effective October 15 and October 22, signaling strong upward pricing momentum following the holiday period. East Coast South America has maintained a gradual downward trend since the holiday, though the decline has been relatively moderate compared with the sharp increases observed on Mexico and West Coast South America lanes.

To help you better understand the current market dynamics and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest observations and outlook for the second half of October.

Rate Direction and Market Pricing Trend

• Carriers have announced consecutive rate increases for Mexico and West Coast South America effective October 15 and October 22, signaling strong pricing momentum as post-holiday cargo volumes return. The consecutive increases within one week clearly indicate carriers’ confidence in sustained demand and their intent to restore pricing following the holiday disruption.
• Mexico and West Coast South America rates are expected to firm significantly during the second half of October, supported by tight space conditions and the consecutive rate increases. Mexico rates are expected to remain slightly lower than West Coast South America levels, reflecting the different demand profiles and routing economics between the two sub-regions.
• East Coast South America base port rates have maintained relatively stable levels with a mild downward bias during the second half of October, contrasting with the sharp upward movement on Mexico and West Coast South America lanes. The underlying reason is differing space dynamics, with East Coast South America capacity absorbing demand more effectively than the tighter Mexico and West Coast South America networks.
• Vessel delays following Golden Week remain significant, creating rate application complexity as most carriers continue applying freight rates based on originally scheduled departure dates rather than revised or actual departure dates. Some shipments with actual departures in Week 43 may therefore benefit from Week 42 rate levels, though partners should verify carrier-specific policies before booking.
• OOCL has announced that freight rates will be applied based on actual departure date rather than scheduled departure date. With rate increases being implemented almost weekly, extra caution is required when booking with OOCL, as vessel delays could result in shipments being subject to higher freight rates than originally anticipated at the time of booking.

Capacity and Space Forecast

• Vessel space remains relatively tight for the second half of October as carriers work through post-Golden Week cargo backlogs without deploying significant additional capacity. Bookings on many services have already extended into the final week of October, indicating sustained demand pressure and limited near-term capacity relief across the network.
• Several network adjustments will take effect during the second half of October and beyond. ZIM SCORPIO 11E omits Shanghai call on ZCP service to Manzanillo SSA terminal, ZIM EMERALD 14E omits Qingdao and Ningbo calls on ZCP service to Manzanillo SSA terminal, and OOCL TLP1 OOCL PERU 002E offers additional space with weight limitations for lightweight cargo.
• OOCL has announced space swaps and vessel sequence adjustments on TLP services for Weeks 43 through 45. TLP2 space has been swapped between CMA CGM SCANDOLA 023E and CMA CGM GOLD 001E, with SCANDOLA potentially omitting Shanghai pending confirmation. TLP5 vessel sequence has been swapped between YANTIAN 134E and OOCL CHENNAI 013E, both offering approximately 1,600 TEU capacity each.
• OOCL is no longer accepting bookings to Puerto Quetzal, Guatemala on TLP services, affecting routing options for customers requiring this destination. Partners with Puerto Quetzal requirements should contact our team to explore alternative carrier solutions and routing options.
• Shanghai port continues experiencing uneven recovery across terminals, with berth waiting times ranging from 2 to 5 days at selected Waigaoqiao terminals to approximately 14 days at Yangshan Phase IV according to recent carrier operational updates. Residual vessel delays and schedule-recovery measures including port omissions and cargo rerouting continue affecting selected Latin America services.
• Ningbo port typhoon-related congestion has largely cleared, with average vessel waiting times returning to approximately one day as of October 9. This represents a meaningful improvement for services calling Ningbo, though the Shanghai congestion remains the primary constraint affecting network-wide operations.

Service Network Developments and Market Drivers

• Hapag-Lloyd is expected to withdraw from the joint East Coast South America service operated with MSC and ONE in January 2027, removing five vessels from the AS2/IPANEMA/SX1 network. MSC may deploy additional vessels to compensate for the capacity reduction, though this has not yet been confirmed. The withdrawal represents a significant network restructuring that may affect space availability and service frequency on East Coast South America lanes during early 2027.
• Maersk is scheduled to withdraw from the joint East Coast South America service operated with CMA CGM in December 2026, prompting CMA CGM to restructure its East Coast South America service network. The timing of both withdrawals – Maersk in December and Hapag-Lloyd in January – suggests a broader realignment of carrier commitments on the East Coast South America trade.
• The joint SEAS2/ESA2/ESA3/TLA2/ES2/SA5 service operated by CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL, PIL and Yang Ming will adjust its port rotation in December, removing Navegantes on December 19 and adding Itajaí on December 20. The rotation adjustment reflects evolving cargo demand patterns and terminal capacity developments in southern Brazil.
• OOCL plans to launch a new TLA3 service connecting Asia with East Coast South America in December 2026, with port rotation including Ningbo, Shanghai, Shekou, Singapore, Santos, Navegantes, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, Navegantes and Santos. The new service will provide additional routing options between major Chinese ports and key East Coast South America destinations.
• China has officially announced that the VAT export rebate rate for New Energy Vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9% effective April 1, 2027, with the applicable rate determined by the export date on customs declarations. Exporters may accelerate shipments ahead of the policy change during Q1 2027, potentially increasing demand for RoRo and container capacity and tightening space availability on selected Latin America services.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment adjustments, service network restructuring and regulatory developments across the Latin America trade. Our teams in China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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