Asia–LATAM Capacity Watch Pre-CNY Congestion and February Blank Sailings

While the first month of 2026 has closed, and the Asia–LATAM market is entering the Chinese New Year period under unusually soft demand conditions. Unlike the typical pre-holiday rush seen in previous years, cargo momentum ahead of this Lunar New Year has been noticeably subdued. Against this backdrop, carriers are managing supply aggressively, and operational risks are expected to rise as we move deeper into February. Below is our latest assessment for the upcoming half of the month, combining trade team insights with broader market developments.

Rate Environment – Extended Lows with Limited Downside

• Freight rate levels across the Asia–LATAM market remained consistently low throughout January, and carriers have now confirmed the extension of these levels through the end of February, in line with earlier expectations.
• Current market rates are widely understood to be below carriers’ operating cost levels, leaving limited room for further negotiation, even for larger-volume shipments.
• Rather than price competition, carriers are increasingly focused on capacity discipline to stabilise the market. As a result, further material rate erosion appears limited in the near term unless demand weakens more sharply than expected.
• No broad-based GRI or PSS implementations are being actively enforced ahead of the holiday; however, carriers continue to signal that post-holiday cost recovery efforts remain on the agenda, particularly if blank sailings successfully tighten supply.

Capacity Outlook – Pre-Holiday Congestion and Post-Holiday Gaps

• As in previous years, carriers have prioritised loading cargo ahead of the holiday to position vessels for the CNY period. This has increased rollover risk for pre-holiday sailings, especially on services that are already heavily booked.
• With the Chinese New Year holiday spanning nine days from 15 February, and many factories observing longer shutdowns, substantial blank sailings are expected in February, particularly in the second half of the month.
• Market cargo is largely concentrated in the first week of February, with limited spillover into the second week. As the holiday approaches, trucking and warehouse capacity is becoming increasingly scarce and more costly, adding further pressure to execution timelines.
• On specific trade lanes:
  • WCSA
    • PIL WSA / WSA2 / WSA6: All vessels through Week 09 are fully booked, with no roll-over space expected to be released.
    • ZIM ZAT: No sailings since mid-February, with a potential temporary suspension in March. Service recovery is tentatively expected in April, subject to further updates.
    • ONE / MSC / HPL / HMM joint services: Space is largely full before the holiday, with some limited release expected during the holiday window.
    • OOCL: No available space prior to the holiday, with heightened roll-over risk.
  • ECSA
    • HPL (AS2), ONE (SX1), MSC (IPANEMAMA): Blank sailings in Week 09 affecting Santos, Paranaguá, Navegantes, Montevideo, Buenos Aires, and Rio Grande.
    • Maersk (ASAS2) and CMA CGM (SEAS3): Blank sailings in Weeks 08 and 09 impacting Santos and Itajaí.

Other Market Drivers – Operational and Regulatory Factors

• Chile Wildfires and Weather Disruption
  Ongoing wildfires, combined with rough sea conditions, are causing uneven operational impacts across Chilean ports. Central-south ports such as Lirquén, San Vicente, and Talcahuano have experienced significant disruptions, while major hubs like Valparaíso and Mejillones are operating under restrictions. Northern ports, including San Antonio and Antofagasta, remain largely unaffected. These conditions may continue to influence vessel schedules and berth productivity in the short term.
• Mexico Customs Regulatory Change
  Under Act No. 162 issued by Mexico’s SAT, freight forwarders are no longer permitted to perform customs clearance activities. Customs clearance fees must now be invoiced directly by licensed customs brokers to importers or exporters. This change affects cost structure, documentation flow, and commercial arrangements for shipments into Mexico and should be factored into planning discussions with clients.
• Holiday Operational Constraints
  Shipping lines typically suspend operations half a day prior to the official holiday start on 15 February. Activities such as booking submissions, documentation, and bill of lading release will be constrained during this period, making advance coordination critical.

In summary, the Asia–LATAM market heading into the second half of February is characterised by extended low rates, tight and uneven capacity, and elevated operational risk around the holiday window. Early confirmation with suppliers on production schedules and post-holiday resumption dates is strongly recommended to support feasible planning.

RS Logistics will continue to closely monitor rate dynamics, blank sailing programmes, and operational developments across LATAM, and we will resume regular market updates after the Chinese New Year holiday. Our teams remain available to discuss specific shipment requirements and provide guidance under the prevailing conditions.

Wishing you good fortune and smooth operations in the Year of the Horse!

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