The Transpacific market from Asia to the Far West continues to operate in a highly capacity-managed environment, with carriers balancing muted demand signals against aggressive supply controls. Below is our latest market assessment for the upcoming half of February, based on trade team feedback and current macro developments, to support your planning and expectation management.
Rate Environment – Near-Term Stability with Selective Downside Pressure
Rate levels applied in the second half of January have largely been extended through February, as the expected pre–Lunar New Year cargo push did not fully materialise. This has limited carriers’ ability to push through fresh general increases in the near term.
Carriers are increasingly defending volumes, particularly on U.S. East Coast routings, where competition remains intense. Market discussions indicate growing flexibility for committed volumes, reflecting the softer demand backdrop.
On the U.S. West Coast, rate levels are relatively stable and appear close to a near-term floor. Further downside remains possible, though it is likely to be incremental unless capacity is restored more aggressively.
While no widespread GRI or PSS implementations are being enforced at this stage, carriers continue to emphasise cost recovery, suggesting rate volatility could re-emerge quickly should demand or capacity dynamics shift.
Capacity Outlook – Ongoing Tightness from Blank Sailings
Capacity remains the primary constraint in the current market. February blank sailings total 63 cancelled sailings across Weeks 06–09, with disruptions intensifying from Week 08 onward.
The most significant impact is seen on PSW and USEC services, driven mainly by Ocean Alliance, Premier Alliance, and MSC+ZIM deployments. Several services have omitted sailings for consecutive weeks, increasing roll-over risk and potentially extending transit delays by up to two weeks.
For shipments requiring higher certainty of uplift, carrier online or platform-based space protection solutions may be considered. However, shippers should carefully review related conditions, particularly around free time, detention, and performance clauses.
From a structural perspective, Ocean Alliance has released its Day-10 updated network plan effective May 2026. While no new loops are being introduced, several port rotation adjustments are expected to improve origin coverage:
Thailand will receive two direct calls to the U.S. West Coast
Haiphong will be added as a direct call on three U.S. West Coast services
Jacksonville will be introduced as a destination call on selected U.S. East Coast services
Other Market Drivers – Trade Policy and Macro Considerations
At the macro level, global demand signals remain mixed, with importers maintaining cautious inventory strategies amid ongoing uncertainty around consumption trends and interest-rate direction in the U.S.
Trade policy developments are also beginning to influence cargo composition. New U.S. tariffs on certain semiconductor-related products, alongside China’s continued enforcement of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on selected materials, may gradually reshape commodity flows and routing decisions rather than trigger immediate volume shifts.
Operationally, the market is best described as being in a transition phase, where rate stability is being maintained through capacity discipline rather than demand strength.
Overall, the second half of February is expected to remain rate-stable but capacity-sensitive, with service reliability and space protection continuing to be key considerations in pricing and planning decisions.
RS Logistics will continue to monitor rate movements, blank sailing programmes, and alliance deployment changes closely, and we will provide timely updates as market conditions evolve. Our teams remain available to discuss specific shipment requirements and support feasible solutions under the prevailing environment.
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