Late January Outlook & Capacity Signals in Transpacific Market

The Transpacific market is moving into the second half of January with clearer signs of softening demand, disciplined carrier behavior, and early positioning ahead of the Chinese New Year slowdown. This update is intended to enhance visibility from Asia origin and support expectation management around rate dynamics and capacity availability for shipments moving to the U.S. and Canada. Below is our consolidated assessment based on feedback from our Transpacific trade team, combined with recent market developments and macro-level factors.

Rate Trend Outlook

• Rate levels applied during the first half of January have largely been extended through month-end, following weaker-than-expected cargo demand across most Asia–U.S. corridors.
• Spot market conditions remain relatively open. Carriers are selectively releasing both spot and fixed-rate space in order to balance overall FAK levels and maintain utilization ahead of the pre-CNY demand dip.
• No broad-based GRI or PSS implementation has been announced for the remainder of January. Current carrier strategy appears focused on protecting base levels through controlled capacity rather than pushing rate increases.
• BCO customers are concluding the first round of annual contract negotiations. Early indications suggest contract benchmarks are settling below initial carrier expectations, which is indirectly increasing carrier flexibility in the spot and semi-fixed market.

Capacity & Space Forecast

• Most carriers continue to accept bookings, particularly on U.S. East Coast services. In preparation for the Chinese New Year holiday, several carriers are proactively building roll pools to manage pre-holiday cargo concentration.

• Blank sailings scheduled for the second half of January are broadly in line with those seen earlier in the month. However, effective vessel capacity has declined due to cumulative schedule adjustments.
• Equipment availability is becoming uneven at certain origins. Some carriers, including CMA CGM, are experiencing container shortages, which may affect booking confirmation lead times at select ports.
• Space conditions differ by trade segment. U.S. West Coast routings remain relatively fluid, while selected U.S. East Coast services are approaching fuller utilization, particularly where contractual cargo dominates.
• Looking further ahead, carriers are already signaling medium-term network adjustments. PA and WHL have released updated routing plans effective May 2026, including new Southeast Asia–LAX services and additional direct-call options from North China to the U.S. West Coast. While not impacting January liftings directly, these changes are shaping slot allocation and service planning discussions.

Other Market Drivers & Macro Factors

• COGH remains the primary gateway for most U.S. East Coast services. Discussion around a potential resumption of Transpacific routings via the Suez Canal continues, though no confirmed timelines have been announced. Any reopening would carry implications for transit times, capacity deployment, and cost structures.
• On the policy front, China and Canada have reached a partial reset in trade relations. This includes tariff adjustments on selected products and a quota arrangement allowing Chinese electric vehicles to enter Canada under MFN tariff levels, significantly lower than previous punitive measures. While near-term volume impact may be limited, this development is being closely monitored by shippers and carriers.
• Macroeconomic indicators remain mixed. U.S. inventory levels are gradually normalizing following year-end stocking, while consumer demand growth remains uneven. This environment continues to limit near-term upward pressure on ocean freight rates.
• Port operations across major U.S. gateways remain stable. Nevertheless, carriers are maintaining conservative schedule buffers, contributing to restrained capacity deployment.

RS Logistics will continue to monitor market movements closely across rates, capacity, and carrier behavior. Our Asia-origin teams remain in active dialogue with carriers and are committed to providing timely, practical updates to support your planning and customer communication. Should you require lane-specific visibility or shipment-level coordination, please feel free to reach out to our team at any time.

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