LATAM Trade Lane Market Conditions & Forward Outlook in Late January
January 17, 2026
The Asia–LATAM market continues to move through a subdued phase as January progresses into its second half. Cargo demand has remained softer than expected, and the traditional pre–Chinese New Year rush has yet to materialize. This update is intended to enhance visibility from Asia origin and provide clearer expectation management around near-term rate behavior, capacity conditions, and external factors affecting shipments to Latin America.
The observations below reflect direct feedback from our LATAM trade team, combined with recent market developments and regulatory updates.
Rate Trend Outlook
Market conditions remained sluggish throughout the second half of January. Most shipping lines have chosen to extend existing rate levels through month-end, with limited room for further meaningful reductions.
Current market levels are approaching, and in some cases falling below, carriers’ operating cost thresholds. This has reduced carriers’ willingness to engage in aggressive rate cutting despite weak demand.
Unlike previous years, the usual cargo-driven peak ahead of the Chinese New Year has not emerged. Shipment volumes remain insufficient to support a broad-based rate rebound.
Market sentiment suggests that the probability of a substantial rate increase in February remains low, given the absence of cargo accumulation typically required before the CNY break.
That said, selective upward pressure cannot be ruled out on certain corridors. COSCO and OOCL are reporting relatively strong booking volumes into WCSA, and when combined with planned blank sailings, there is a growing inclination among these carriers to test firmer rate levels toward late January or early February.
Capacity & Space Forecast
Capacity management remains a key tool for carriers navigating weak demand. Blank sailings continue to be implemented selectively, particularly on long-haul Asia–LATAM services.
COSCO and OOCL have announced blank sailings on the WSA5 / TLP5 loop, impacting multiple Asia load ports and WCSA destinations through late January and February. This will reduce effective capacity and may tighten space on specific sailings.
On the East Coast South America side, vessel rotations involving COSCO, OOCL, EMC, CMA CGM, PIL, and others remain largely intact, though individual voyages are being adjusted to balance utilization.
Vessel deployment schedules indicate longer transit gaps during the CNY period, with some services resuming only in late February or early March. This will affect shipment planning and cargo cut-off timing.
Overall space availability remains manageable for now, but the combination of blank sailings and pre-holiday operational constraints may result in uneven availability by port pair and service string.
Other Market Drivers & Regulatory Developments
Mexico has implemented significant changes to its General Import and Export Tax Law, effective January 1, 2026. Import tariffs have been increased across approximately 1,463 HS codes, with permanent adjustments to the national tariff schedule.
Affected products span a wide range of industrial and consumer sectors, including automotive, textiles, apparel, plastics, steel, aluminum, household appliances, furniture, footwear, toys, paper products, motorcycles, trailers, and glass.
Tariff increases vary by product, with new duty levels ranging from single-digit percentages up to 50%. These changes are expected to influence landed costs, purchasing decisions, and shipment timing into Mexico.
From an operational standpoint, attention is also turning to China’s 2026 public holiday calendar. The Spring Festival period from mid to late February will significantly reduce trucking, warehousing, and export handling capacity, particularly during the peak travel window ahead of the holiday.
Advance planning around factory closures, inland transportation, and cargo gate-in timing will be critical to avoiding disruptions during this period.
RS Logistics will continue to track developments across rates, capacity deployment, and regulatory changes affecting the Asia–LATAM trade. Our teams remain in close contact with carriers and local partners and will provide timely updates as conditions evolve. Please feel free to reach out should you require lane-specific insights or support with shipment planning in the weeks ahead.
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