Latin America Market Stabilizes at Floor Levels Ahead of Mid-October Rate Push

Following the significant rate correction during the second half of September, the Latin America market appears to be approaching a near-term floor, with increasingly limited room for further reductions. Mexico and West Coast South America rates have stabilized at floor levels following the September correction, while East Coast South America rates have held firm relative to other lanes. Brief attempts by a few carriers to test lower levels quickly reverted as the market stabilized. With China’s National Day Golden Week running from October 1 to 7, most carriers are maintaining their current rate levels through October 14, though Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have already announced a substantial increase per container effective October 15, signaling renewed rate restoration efforts for the second half of October.

To help you better understand the current market dynamics and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest observations and outlook for the first half of October.

Rate Direction and Market Pricing Trend

• We expect freight rates to remain relatively stable during the first half of October, with limited downside unless post-holiday cargo recovery is materially weaker than expected. The market has reached a near-term floor following September’s correction, and carriers are maintaining rate levels through October 14 in connection with the Golden Week factory closures across mainland China.
• Mexico and West Coast South America rates have stabilized at floor levels during the first half of October, representing the lowest levels reached following the September correction. Brief attempts by carriers to test lower levels quickly reverted as the market stabilized, demonstrating carriers’ resistance to further downward pressure.
• East Coast South America rates have held firm during the first half of October, reflecting tighter space conditions compared with other Latin America lanes. The underlying reason is strong China-origin demand, which continues absorbing additional capacity deployments and limiting the extent of rate softening despite the broader network trend.
• Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have announced a substantial rate increase per container from Asia to Latin America effective October 15, covering Mexico, West Coast South America, East Coast South America, Central America and the Caribbean. This signals carriers’ intent to restore pricing during the second half of October, supported by expectations of post-holiday cargo recovery and the current floor-level rate environment.
• For partners handling larger-volume shipments or project cargo to Latin America destinations, we encourage direct engagement with our pricing team. Market conditions remain negotiable depending on shipment profile and routing requirements, and tailored solutions may be available as carriers balance rate restoration efforts with the need to maintain vessel utilization.

Capacity and Space Forecast

• Space on most sailings before and during the Golden Week period has already been largely sold out, while blank sailings and widespread vessel delays are reducing effective capacity. Customers are strongly advised to pay close attention to potential rollovers before and during Golden Week, as vessel delays are currently severe and may further reduce effective capacity even when space has been confirmed.
• Schedule reliability at Shanghai and Ningbo has reportedly fallen to around 12% and 17% respectively, increasing the risk of cargo being rolled or delayed even when space has been confirmed. A significant amount of capacity is currently tied up around major ports due to congestion and berthing delays, with Shanghai and Ningbo particularly affected.
• Mexico and West Coast South America space remains manageable but not loose, with tighter conditions possible around Golden Week. East Coast South America capacity is improving through additional deployments, although strong China-origin demand is absorbing part of the increase. West Coast Central America and Caribbean capacity is generally manageable, but feeder availability and connection reliability remain key constraints affecting booking flexibility.
• Multiple blank sailings are scheduled across the network during weeks 42 and 43: Week 43 includes Wan Hai AS2, PIL WS6, EMC WAS6 and YML SA8 services to Mexico and West Coast South America; Week 42 includes Wan Hai ASA, PIL WS2, COSCO WSA2, EMC WSA2 and YML SA6 services to Mexico and West Coast South America; Wan Hai WSA, PIL WSA, COSCO WSA, EMC WSA and YML SA4 services to Mexico and West Coast South America; and ZIM Falcon Service feeder to East Coast South America from Shanghai during weeks 41 and 42.
• Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, ONE and MSC are omitting multiple Shanghai and Ningbo port calls across their East Coast South America services throughout October. All four vessels on the AN2/NW2/AX2/ANDES service skip Shanghai during October, while the AN1/NW1/AX1/INCA service records Shanghai omissions on LIMA EXPRESS and HUMBOLDT EXPRESS voyages and a Ningbo omission on BUENOS AIRES EXPRESS.
• Wan Hai has launched an extra loader service departing October 14 from Port Klang, calling Phuoc An, Haiphong, Shekou, Qingdao, Ensenada, Manzanillo and Buenaventura. This provides additional capacity on the Asia-Mexico-West Coast South America route, offering improved booking opportunities during the post-Golden Week period.

Operational Developments and Market Drivers

• China’s National Day Golden Week from October 1 to 7 is affecting carrier operations and documentation processing across mainland China. Carrier offices, pricing teams, booking departments and local suppliers may be closed or operate with limited staffing during this period. Rate approvals, booking confirmations, documentation and equipment releases may therefore take longer than usual, with normal operations resuming from October 8.
• Multiple public holidays across Asia during the first half of October are affecting carrier operations and local coordination. Hong Kong observes National Day on October 1, Taiwan’s National Day holiday runs from October 9 to 11, Thailand observes King Bhumibol Adulyadej the Great Memorial Day on October 13, and Cambodia’s Pchum Ben Festival runs from October 10 to 12 with high impact on offices, businesses, booking, trucking, customs and documentation.
• THAI Cargo has announced a temporary embargo on inbound, outbound and transshipment cargo at its Suvarnabhumi Airport cargo terminal from October 1 to 6 due to the ongoing flooding situation. Partners should check all upcoming shipments involving Bangkok, particularly transit cargo, and confirm whether any alternative routing is required.
• MSC will apply a revised Low Water Surcharge to all import and export shipments to or from Manaus effective October 4. The surcharge applies to all trades and is temporary, related to low water levels in the Amazon River, subject to review according to river and navigation conditions.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment adjustments, blank sailing schedules and operational developments across the Latin America trade. Our teams in China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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