The transpacific market continues to strengthen entering the second half of May, with carriers successfully implementing another round of rate increases while space conditions tighten rapidly across most export gateways in Asia. Compared with April, blank sailings have reduced significantly, but this has not translated into easier booking conditions as cargo demand accelerated sharply following the recent tariff developments between China and the United States.
The current market environment is increasingly being driven by space control rather than pricing alone. Multiple carriers have already suspended or restricted fixed rate allocations for June, while many forwarders continue pre booking large blocks of space in anticipation of further market escalation. As a result, the booking window for secured space has shortened considerably across both USWC and USEC services.
Rate Direction and Market Pricing Trend
Carriers successfully implemented the mid May GRI across most transpacific services, with stronger increases observed on East Coast and Gulf routings compared with West Coast services.
Another substantial GRI is currently planned for 1 June. Most carriers are signaling a continued upward pricing direction into early June due to sustained booking pressure and limited confirmed allocations.
Peak Season Surcharge implementation is becoming more aggressive. Several carriers are preparing to raise PSS levels further in June as they attempt to manage equipment and space demand ahead of the traditional peak season cycle.
Emergency Fuel Surcharge discussions continue across carrier groups. While some carriers are considering adjustments or removal from Q2 onwards, overall bunker related cost pressure remains elevated due to fuel market volatility and rerouting costs.
Despite the strong upward trend, the market has not yet reached a stage where carriers can freely sell any pricing level. Competition remains active, especially from larger multinational forwarders offering fixed pricing structures to protect strategic accounts.
Customers with urgent shipments or delivery commitments should expect carriers to prioritize allocation based bookings and premium products over purely spot market cargo.
Capacity Outlook and Space Situation
Space conditions to USEC, Gulf and PNW remain extremely tight. Several carriers have either suspended fixed rate space or are only releasing allocations against confirmed volume commitments.
The cargo rush triggered by recent tariff adjustments and inventory rebuilding activity is expected to continue into June. Most May allocations are already heavily utilized across major China export ports.
Compared with April, blank sailings have decreased significantly, particularly on West Coast services. However, the reduction in blank sailings has not meaningfully improved available booking space due to stronger cargo intake.
The operational focus has shifted toward allocation control and vessel planning rather than pure freight pricing. Carriers are closely managing ratio commitments while attempting to balance long term contract customers against spot market demand.
Several large vessels are expected to enter the market in June, particularly on selected West Coast loops. If cargo growth slows during the second half of June, some softening pressure may gradually emerge, although current conditions remain firm.
Cargo rollover risk remains high, especially for shipments without secured allocation or premium booking arrangements. Customers are strongly advised to place bookings as early as possible to improve loading prospects.
Certain carriers continue offering premium space protection products for urgent cargo. These products may help reduce rollover exposure during the current tight market cycle.
Policy and Market Developments Affecting Trade
The United States tariff environment remains highly fluid. The legal situation surrounding the Section 122 global tariff program continues to evolve following recent rulings by the U.S. Court of International Trade and subsequent appeals.
At present, the temporary 10 percent Section 122 surcharge remains in effect following the appeal court decision to pause the earlier ruling.
Section 301 tariffs on China origin cargo remain fully active. Depending on commodity classification, many products continue facing additional duties of 7.5 percent or 25 percent.
The IEEPA related tariffs, including fentanyl related tariff programs, are no longer being collected after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA could not serve as the legal basis for broad import tariffs.
Ongoing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty continues influencing inventory positioning decisions among US importers, contributing to front loading activity and earlier than normal peak season shipment behavior.
Equipment imbalance remains visible at several Asia export hubs as carriers reposition containers aggressively toward higher yielding trade lanes.
RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier allocation policies, market pricing direction, blank sailing adjustments and regulatory developments closely. Our teams across China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments.
We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve further into June.
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