Asia to Latin America Market Conditions and Planning Notes

We would like to share an update from the Asia origin side focused on the Asia to Latin America trade lane, following the close of 2025 and the start of the new year. This update is intended to provide clearer visibility on current market conditions and help manage expectations around rate direction, capacity planning, and operational risks for the first half of January. The LATAM market is entering 2026 in a relatively soft but transitional phase, with several developments worth close attention. Below is our combined view based on trade team feedback, carrier updates, and recent policy and market movements.

Rate Trend Outlook

• Cargo volumes remain relatively weak in early January, mainly due to the year-end holiday effect, and overall demand has yet to show a clear rebound.

• Freight rates are currently hovering at low levels, with limited immediate support from cargo volume in the first half of the month.
• With Chinese New Year approaching in February, a pre-holiday cargo rush is traditionally expected to develop from mid to late January.
• Given that current freight levels are widely viewed as below carriers’ operating costs, there is a growing possibility of rate adjustments upward should volumes recover.
• At this stage, carriers remain cautious rather than aggressive, but the downside risk appears limited if demand begins to improve.

Capacity Forecast and Service Developments

• Carriers continue to adjust service structures and port rotations on Asia–LATAM routes, focusing on network optimisation rather than capacity expansion.
• Recently announced or upcoming service changes include:
  • Revised Mexico West Coast rotations, improving connectivity and port coverage.
  • New and adjusted West Coast South America services, linking North Asia with Buenaventura, San Antonio, Chancay, Callao, and Posorja.
  • Expanded Asia to East Coast South America coverage, connecting China and Southeast Asia with Brazil via Santos and Itajaí.
• These changes indicate fine-tuning of deployment and vessel utilisation, rather than a meaningful increase in available space.
• Overall capacity remains controlled, and space availability may tighten quickly once pre-holiday demand picks up.

Other Factors Influencing the Asia LATAM Market

• Mexico implemented a new tariff policy effective January 1, 2026, covering approximately 17 percent of tariff codes. Increases affect a wide range of products, including aluminum, steel, plastics, consumer goods, automotive products, and industrial items, creating uncertainty for importers and suppliers.
• Chinese Customs authorities have reinforced strict inspection and declaration requirements, with heavy penalties for misdeclaration or underreporting. Carriers are also introducing stronger accountability clauses during booking.
• China’s 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan, effective January 1, continues to support preferential tariffs under existing free trade agreements, including those with Peru, Nicaragua, and Ecuador, as well as under RCEP, which may provide structural support for certain LATAM trade flows.
• Recent geopolitical developments involving Venezuela have not yet resulted in official capacity or service adjustments by carriers or airlines, though the situation remains under close observation.
• Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with shippers balancing cost control against policy uncertainty and potential operational risks.

RS Logistics will continue to closely monitor rate movements, carrier capacity decisions, and regulatory developments across the Asia–LATAM trade lane. We will keep you updated as the situation evolves, particularly as Chinese New Year approaches and demand patterns become clearer.

Should you require lane-specific insights or booking support, our teams remain ready to assist.

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