Year-End Transpacific Outlook for Asia Export Cargo

As we move into the second half of December, the Transpacific market is entering a transition phase shaped by year-end cargo behavior, controlled capacity, and early positioning for January market moves. Below is a consolidated view from our Asia trade teams, combined with broader market and macro observations, to help align expectations on rates, space, and execution for Asia exports to the US Far West, East Coast, and Gulf.

Rate Outlook – Second Half of December

• Carriers are generally maintaining GRI momentum introduced earlier in December, with current adjustment levels broadly indicated in the market for both USWC and USEC. However, actual execution varies by carrier, routing, and vessel.
• Some carriers are extending existing rate validity to secure volume and stabilize vessel utilization:
  • WHL has extended certain rate levels tied to specific routings, aligned with Week 50–51 cut-offs.
  • ESL has extended rates through the end of December.
• While West Coast rates appear relatively range-bound, East Coast pricing remains more sensitive, with adjustments expected in the coming days depending on vessel fill and last-minute BCO demand.
• From a market behavior perspective, carriers are selectively flexible, especially where volume commitments can support vessel optimization.
• Looking ahead, there is growing market discussion around January GRI intentions, supported by expectations of late-December booking activity and tighter early-January sailings.

Capacity & Space Forecast

• Most carriers remain open for bookings to USEC and GULF, though space is tightening on certain sailings as we move closer to cut-off.
• An increase in bookings from Southeast Asia has been observed in the second half of December, largely driven by:
  • Blank sailings
  • Port omissions
  • Cargo rollovers from earlier disrupted schedules
• Capacity by trade shows mixed conditions:
  • USEC remains the most active, with multiple weekly sailings but faster space absorption.
  • PSW and PNW are relatively balanced, though select services are approaching full utilization.
  • Gulf services remain available but require close monitoring on cut-off timing.
• For cargo moving under Ocean Alliance (OA) arrangements, early booking is strongly recommended. The risk of rollover remains present, especially on sailings impacted by network adjustments.
• Overall, carriers continue to manage capacity cautiously, prioritizing yield protection and schedule reliability over aggressive space release.

Other Key Market Drivers

• From a macro perspective, global shipping remains influenced by geopolitical uncertainty and routing inefficiencies, particularly around the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While discussions around reopening continue, most carriers have yet to finalize rerouting strategies.
• Looking into 2026, a potential Suez normalization could lead to higher effective capacity, driven by faster vessel turnaround and reduced voyage duration. However, this remains a medium-term variable rather than an immediate relief.
• On the demand side, BCO activity is expected to pick up toward late December, as some shippers advance cargo ahead of potential January increases or inventory planning for early Q1.
• Port operations in Asia remain stable overall, though localized congestion risks persist due to vessel bunching caused by blank sailings.

As always, RS Logistics will continue to monitor carrier behavior, space utilization, and rate movements closely across Asia origins. Our teams remain actively engaged with carriers to secure workable solutions and provide timely updates as market conditions evolve. Please feel free to reach out to us for alignment on specific routings or shipment planning as we move toward year-end and into the new year.

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