Asia–Transpacific Ocean Freight: Capacity Outlook Following Announced Blank Sailings

A recent notice from the major alliances — Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance, Gemini (Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd), MSC, and several independent carriers — reveals an extensive series of blank sailings across Weeks 40–44 of 2025. The affected services cover the U.S. East Coast (USEC), U.S. West Coast (PSW/PNW), Gulf, and selected niche trades, signalling a broad recalibration of liftings on the Asia–Transpacific corridor. Awareness of these developments is critical, as large-scale blank sailings have a direct bearing on available capacity, schedule reliability, and freight rate stability across the Asia–North America trade. A clear view of these dynamics enables RS Logistics and our partners to plan allocations, manage customer expectations, and safeguard service performance as market conditions evolve.

Scale of Capacity Withdrawal

• More than 40 sailings are either cancelled or have port calls omitted within this five-week period.
• The densest concentration is on West Coast loops, though East Coast and Gulf services are also significantly affected.
• Departures from key load ports — Xingang, Qingdao, Ningbo, Shanghai, Yantian, Busan, Port Kelang, Kaohsiung, and Haiphong — show gaps of between seven and fourteen days on several rotations.
• Overall, these measures could temporarily remove an estimated 8–12% of weekly head-haul capacity from Asia to North America, with the sharpest reductions projected on Pacific Northwest services.

Likely Drivers

• Post–Golden Week demand adjustment: Carriers traditionally rationalise services following the China holiday to maintain utilisation.
• Yield protection: Softening spot rates in late Q3 have increased the incentive to curb under-booked departures.
• Network rebalancing: Capacity is being shifted toward firmer trade lanes.
• Schedule recovery: Selected blank sailings allow operators to reset rotations and restore reliability after summer disruptions.

Implications for Shippers

• Space availability: Mid-October liftings may tighten, particularly on Yantian/Ningbo–USWC and South China–USEC flows.
• Freight rates and surcharges: A firmer supply–demand balance could support general rate increment.
• Transit-time uncertainty: Containers re-routed through alternate gateways risk extended dwell if transhipment connections are missed.

Recommended Actions

• Book early: Secure space two to three weeks in advance for departures between 3 and 20 October.
• Diversify gateways: Where operationally feasible, distribute volumes among PNW (Seattle/Vancouver), PSW (Los Angeles/Long Beach/Oakland), and USEC gateways to mitigate exposure to individual loop cancellations.
• Maintain visibility: Monitor carrier advisories and sailing schedules closely; prompt information can help avoid disruption.
• Use digital visibility tools: Platforms such as MyRS and carrier dashboards provide real-time schedule updates and allow shippers to identify alternative routings quickly.

Market Outlook

Although blank sailings form part of the normal post-holiday adjustment, the breadth of these cancellations suggests a deliberate strategy to defend yields during a soft demand phase. Should U.S. holiday restocking accelerate in late Q4, some of the later cancellations may be reversed; a continuation into November would indicate ongoing pressure on head-haul utilisation.

Conclusion
The announced blank sailings represent a substantial, though likely temporary, tightening of Asia–North America ocean freight capacity. Shippers are encouraged to plan conservatively, diversify routings, and stay informed as the market finds balance through Q4 2025. At RS Logistics, we continue to monitor market dynamics closely and support our partners with timely insights, capacity planning, and technology-driven visibility through MyRS.

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