Navigating Rising Rates and Tightening Capacity on the Trans-Pacific Trade

Global demand is pivoting sharply toward the Asia-U.S. corridor as the 90-day U.S.–China tariff reprieve drives front-loaded orders and carriers rush to monetise tightening space. The ripple effects—steep spot-rate hikes, selective capacity redeployments, and renewed fears of West Coast congestion—are already visible and will define bookings through the July peak.

Rates & Surcharges

• Major carriers pushed through 1 June GRIs, raising spot quotations on both coasts; however, levels continue to be re-benchmarked roughly every two weeks.
• Premium add-ons (PSS, equipment guarantees) frequently exceed base FAK, but in early June the market character is still more space-driven than rate-driven. Confirm allocations first, then price.

Capacity Shifts & Extra Loaders

• Net Pacific capacity fell about 3 % between December and March, yet extra loaders were added in May and early June, especially ex-South China, to ease pressure.
• Blank-sailing programs persist in parallel to defend June GRIs, so effective supply remains finely balanced.
• Inland China depots (Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhan) still report 20–30 % shortages of 40 HCs—SOC boxes or alternative origins can mitigate gaps.

Port & Landside Congestion

• Berth waits already stretch to 10–11 days at Los Angeles/Long Beach; East Coast gateways post 7–8 days, with chassis availability the tightest since 2022.
• Import rush is expected to pull LA/LB throughput down 30 % immediately after the tariff window closes, risking whipsaw swings in labour scheduling and dwell times.
• Terminal operators warn that any further vessel bunching could recreate 2021-style street-turn delays and peak-season demurrage spikes.

Shipper Playbook for June–July

• Book two–four weeks ahead and secure premium options where transit time is critical—extra loaders mean June space is available but will fill quickly once allocations open.
• Build liberal lead-time buffers and pre-clear cargo where possible to bypass inland rail slow-downs linked to chassis/driver shortages.
• Diversify gateways—e.g., Tacoma, Oakland, or Houston—to spread congestion exposure, even if base rates are marginally higher.
• Position inventory ahead of the 14 August tariff snap-back; late-July sailings may arrive too late to clear customs before duties revert.

With GRIs locked in and premium space fully committed through week 28, the Trans-Pacific will remain space-driven at least until mid-July. Any slippage in port performance—whether labour-related or weather-related—could exacerbate delays and push spot prices beyond current forecasts.

Continuous data feeds from carriers and ports power our intelligence engine, giving you precise trade-lane outlooks, priority lift windows, and current allocation figures. Connect with our experts so we can secure your boxes well before bottlenecks develop.

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