June Sparks Further Rate Surge on Asia–Latin America Trade
May 29, 2025
In this LATAM Market Update, we continue to examine how the abrupt U.S.–China tariff suspension is reshaping Asia-to-Latin America container flows—driving capacity cuts, congestion, and record rate hikes.
Global container networks absorbed a sudden shock on 12 May when Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs, slashing duties that had climbed as high as 145 % and unleashing a surge of time-sensitive exports to the United States. Carriers responded within hours, redeploying 13 000 TEU ships from the Shanghai–San Antonio and Ningbo–Santos loops into the higher-yield Trans-Pacific, a move that has already cut weekly east-bound capacity into Brazil and Chile by an estimated 28 % (week 22).
Rates & Surcharges: A Moving Target
Spot rates have risen sharply since early May, breaching successive record thresholds by the first week of June and continuing their upward march as carriers revise FAK levels almost daily.
Maersk will levy a Peak‑Season Surcharge (PSS) of USD 1,000/2,000/2,000 (20’/40’/HQ) from June; peers are issuing similar notices.
Quotations are increasingly “indicative”; carriers reserve the right to withdraw or re‑quote within hours.
Capacity Flows Rebalance
Panama Canal draft warnings return despite a 25 % rebound in FY 2025 transits, threatening renewed transit restrictions.
Mexico congestion deepens at Lázaro Cárdenas and Manzanillo, where 12,000–16,000 TEU vessels are stretching berth waits to nearly five days.
Chilean gateway disruptions persist as fishermen protests at Valparaíso and San Antonio strand empties and reroute fruit exports.
Spot rates surge on Shanghai to Santos from ~USD 1,400 in early May to USD 4,000–5,000 in early June—the sharpest jump since 2021.
Tighter Booking Discipline
Space on several carriers’ June sailings is already fully committed, leaving only premium allocations and ad-hoc roll-over options for late bookings.
Amendments to weight or commodity are routinely declined or rolled to later vessels.
Stricter no-show penalties indicates that cancellation or cargo-roll fees have doubled in many loops, and mis-declared commodity or weight is grounds for immediate slot forfeiture.
Congestion & Transit Risk
Extra loaders into Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas are lengthening berth waits, delaying feeders into Brazil, Peru and Chile.
Shipments routed through Mexico or Panama should include a generous scheduling cushion; ongoing canal draft constraints, berth congestion and tidal delays are causing frequent ETA slippage and missed feeder connections.
Inland rail and cross‑dock options can mitigate coastal bottlenecks—consider flexible port pairs.
Outlook & Tactical Advice
No rate relief is expected before mid‑July; the market will remain space‑driven through the holiday run‑up.
Expect Trans‑Pacific fuel and PSS formulas to flow into Asia–LATAM tariffs once networks stabilise.
“Earliest sailing = lowest cost”: forecast volumes early so we can secure space at today’s—not tomorrow’s—levels.
RS Logistics maintains a live watchlist of blank sailings, vessel redeployments, and new surcharge filings. Analytics hubs in China and Southeast Asia update capacity models each day, giving us lane-level visibility on demand. Should you need forward space projections, contingency routings, or real-time allocation data, simply contact the team.
Thank you for your continued trust—together, we will keep cargo moving during this volatile peak season and beyond.
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