The Asia–Europe trade enters the second half of the year on a more stable footing than many anticipated. Carrier capacity has continued to recover despite selective blank sailings, while demand remains supported by the traditional summer shipping season and gradual inventory replenishment across Europe. Although freight rates have largely stabilized following the June increases, the market continues to face geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and Red Sea, making flexibility and carrier selection increasingly important.
Below is our latest market outlook for the first half of July.
Freight Rate Outlook
Freight rates remain relatively stable entering the first half of July following the adjustments implemented during June. Carriers continue to defend pricing through disciplined capacity management while avoiding aggressive market competition.
No major General Rate Increase (GRI) announcements have gained broad market acceptance for early July. Instead, most carriers are focusing on maintaining current market levels through selective capacity control.
Market pricing remains relatively balanced across North Europe destinations, while secondary gateways continue to benefit from improving service options and competitive routing.
Carriers remain cautious in releasing additional promotional pricing due to continued geopolitical uncertainty affecting global shipping networks and operating costs.
For large-volume shipments or project cargo, we encourage partners to contact our pricing team separately. With multiple carrier options available, we are able to tailor routing solutions according to transit requirements, equipment availability and destination flexibility.
Capacity and Network Developments
Average weekly Asia–Europe capacity during July is expected to reach approximately 323,000 TEUs, representing a moderate increase compared with June and reflecting carriers’ confidence in maintaining supply throughout the summer season.
Only five blank sailings have been identified across the July schedule, all within the Ocean Alliance network. Compared with previous months, this represents a relatively healthy capacity environment despite continued schedule optimization.
Ocean Alliance continues to adjust individual service strings:
CES service records blank sailings during Weeks 27 and 29.
LL1, CEM and AEU7 each record one blank sailing during Week 31.
CMA CGM’s FAL3 service will operate independently during Weeks 27 and 30 rather than under the normal Ocean Alliance slot-sharing arrangement, meaning partner carriers will not have access to shared vessel space on these departures.
Carriers continue deploying additional loaders to supplement available capacity:
Maersk has introduced the SANTA CRUZ extra loader during Week 27.
Hapag-Lloyd will deploy EXPRESS SANTORINI during Week 29.
These additional sailings are expected to improve booking flexibility and help maintain schedule reliability during the summer shipping period.
Overall schedule reliability has improved compared with earlier in the year as blank sailings become less frequent and vessel deployment stabilizes across the major alliances.
Market Drivers and Operational Developments
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the largest external risk influencing the Europe trade. Although the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire understanding in mid-June, tensions continue to escalate around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has announced additional control measures over commercial vessel transits and challenged internationally recognized navigation routes, increasing uncertainty for global shipping despite the formal ceasefire. Recent incidents involving commercial vessels and military activity highlight the fragile security environment.
In the Red Sea, maritime security concerns remain elevated. During the first week of July, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued multiple navigation advisories following illegal boarding incidents involving commercial vessels. While most Asia–Europe liner services continue routing via the Cape of Good Hope, shipping lines remain cautious and continue monitoring security developments before considering any large-scale return to the Suez Canal.
European economic activity continues to show gradual improvement, supported by easing inflation and recovering consumer demand. However, businesses remain cautious regarding inventory planning due to geopolitical uncertainty and higher logistics costs, resulting in more measured purchasing behavior compared with previous peak seasons.
As carriers continue balancing capacity with demand, service reliability has become an increasingly important differentiator. We recommend early booking for time-sensitive shipments and maintaining routing flexibility where possible to minimize potential operational disruptions.
As always, our Europe Trade and Pricing teams continue to monitor market developments, carrier network adjustments and geopolitical events on a daily basis. Should you have any upcoming inquiries or require the latest market intelligence, please feel free to reach out to your RS Logistics representative. We remain committed to providing timely updates, competitive solutions and dependable execution as market conditions continue to evolve throughout the summer season.
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