Transpacific Rates Hold Through July as Capacity Adjusts

The Transpacific market is entering the second half of July with rates extended from early-month levels and no further General Rate Increase expected on July 15. While carriers implemented substantial increases during the first half of the year – with rates rising from February troughs to June peaks across all major gateways – the current phase is characterized by rate stability and selective promotional activity. Space conditions vary by gateway, with Pacific Southwest and Pacific Northwest currently open but strong demand anticipated, while U.S. East Coast capacity is expected to ease further as service upgrades take effect from August.

To help you better understand the current market and support your sales activities at origin, please find below our latest market observations and outlook.

Rate Direction and Market Pricing Trend

• Early-July rates have been extended through the end of July with no General Rate Increase expected on July 15. This represents a pause following the sharp acceleration observed from April through June, when rates across all Transpacific gateways rose substantially from their February lows.
• Pacific Southwest rates bottomed in February before rising to June peaks, with premium services commanding the highest levels. The current market reflects this upward trajectory, though carriers are now offering selective promotions for specific vessels as they manage utilization during the extended rate period.
• U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast lanes are experiencing targeted promotional activity. Several carriers are offering special rates for shipments under 10 tons, with moderate reductions available for qualifying cargo. This selective approach indicates carriers are balancing revenue protection with the need to secure bookings on specific sailings.
• Pacific Northwest rates remain relatively elevated despite the extended rate period. The gateway experienced a sharp rise from its February trough, and current pricing reflects sustained carrier discipline in this corridor.
• Peak Season Surcharge levels are generally maintained at elevated levels across the trade. Carriers continue to apply these surcharges as part of their peak-season pricing structure, supporting overall rate stability during the traditional high-volume period.
• Overseas agents with larger-volume opportunities or project cargo are encouraged to contact our pricing team directly. Market conditions remain negotiable for certain cargo profiles, and tailored solutions continue to be available where booking volumes and routing flexibility support competitive pricing.

Capacity Outlook and Space Situation

• Space to Pacific Southwest remains generally open, though strong demand for West Coast shipments is expected. Carrier strategies vary, with some shipping lines offering competitive rates for specific vessels to optimize utilization. Pacific Northwest space is relatively loose, with certain sailings now offering flexible allocation options.
• Premier Alliance has added one extra sailing to Pacific Northwest in mid-July, demonstrating continued carrier confidence in demand for this gateway and providing additional booking flexibility for origin partners.
• Blank sailings across the Transpacific network total 12 cancellations over the three-week period from July 13 through August 2. The week of July 20-26 accounts for 4 blank sailings, while Pacific Northwest carries the highest total with 5 cancellations spread across the three weeks. Gulf Coast services maintain full schedules with zero blank sailings during this period.
• Service enhancements to India are scheduled to ease current space constraints. ONE has upgraded its bi-weekly WIN service to a weekly INE service jointly operated with HPL, with the maiden voyage scheduled for early August. MSC’s INDUS service is also expected to resume weekly operations from late August, providing additional capacity relief for this trade lane.
• Alliance distribution of blank sailings shows Ocean Alliance accounting for 6 cancellations and Premier Alliance accounting for 5 across all gateways during the three-week window. U.S. East Coast blank sailings are concentrated in the week of July 20-26, with one cancellation each from Ocean Alliance, Premier Alliance and MSC/ZIM.

Tariff Developments and Operational Adjustments

• Section 122 global tariff at 10% remains under close watch ahead of its July 24 expiration date. Changes may occur before or around this date, and we continue monitoring developments closely as the expiration approaches. China Section 301 tariffs remain in effect, while proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade tariff reductions are in the public comment stage and not yet officially implemented.
• Forced Labor Section 301 measures remain in the proposal and post-hearing review stage without official implementation. AD/CVD and Section 232 tariffs continue to apply depending on specific product categories, maintaining the existing duty structure for affected goods.
• Carriers are implementing Heavy Weight Surcharges for July sailings, applying substantial charges to containers exceeding standard weight thresholds. These surcharges address the operational cost of handling overweight shipments and apply to qualifying cargo on July departures.
• Carriers are imposing Panama Canal surcharges effective from late July. The surcharges are linked to the approaching Panama Canal dry season, which typically creates operational constraints and increased transit costs for services utilizing this routing.

RS Logistics will continue monitoring carrier pricing strategies, capacity deployment adjustments and regulatory developments across the Transpacific trade. Our teams across China and Southeast Asia remain available to support booking planning, routing evaluation and space coordination for upcoming shipments. We will continue sharing timely updates as market conditions evolve.

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