LATAM Trade Outlook April Service Upgrades and Market Direction

The Asia to LATAM market is showing early signs of rate stabilization in early April after the softer levels seen in March. While overall demand remains moderate, carriers are becoming more selective in cargo acceptance, with a clear preference towards Mexico-bound shipments where commercial flexibility is higher. The market remains fragmented due to the coexistence of long-term contracts and spot cargo, creating a wider spread in actual transaction levels. At the same time, structural adjustments on capacity and service networks are beginning to reshape supply dynamics across both WCSA and ECSA corridors.

Rate Trend Outlook First Half of April

• Market has seen a mild upward correction entering April, supported by carriers’ attempts to restore rate levels after March softness
• WCSA continues to outperform ECSA in terms of rate strength, reflecting relatively better demand fundamentals and cargo flow stability
• The presence of a large volume of fixed contracts and spot cargo continues to dilute the effectiveness of rate increases, leading to a wide range of executed levels
• Carriers are showing stronger willingness to negotiate on Mexico cargo, both in terms of pricing and space allocation, making it a more flexible trade lane commercially
• For larger volume shipments, carriers remain open to structured discussions, indicating that pricing remains highly shipment-dependent rather than fully standardised

Capacity Outlook and Service Adjustments

• Blank sailings continue to play a role in managing supply, with WCSA seeing multiple cancellations across key services such as WSA5, TLP5, and WSA8, impacting major origin ports including Shanghai, Ningbo and Qingdao
• ECSA capacity remains relatively stable but selective adjustments are observed, including blank sailings on SEAS3 and ASAS2 services into Santos
• ONE has introduced an upgraded WCSA service (AX4), expanding port coverage and improving network connectivity, including new calls such as Qingdao, Ensenada, Callao and Posorja
• The AX4 enhancement also reflects increasing cooperation between carriers through slot sharing, with additional space support from HMM
• On the ECSA side, service rotation adjustments are being implemented, including the replacement of Rio Grande with Rio de Janeiro, indicating a shift in cargo concentration and port prioritisation
• Overall, carriers are focusing on optimising network efficiency rather than expanding capacity, keeping supply relatively controlled

Other Market Influencing Factors

• China has implemented new export tax policy adjustments from April, including the removal and gradual reduction of export rebates on selected products such as photovoltaic and battery-related goods, which may impact export cargo composition and volumes
• Mexico continues to strengthen its port infrastructure, with Lazaro Cardenas completing phase two of terminal expansion and moving into phase three, supporting long-term capacity growth and operational efficiency
• Brazil has introduced significant tariff increases on over 1,200 imported products, particularly targeting industrial and machinery sectors, which may influence import demand and cargo mix into ECSA
• From a broader macro perspective, LATAM economies are maintaining stable but cautious growth, with infrastructure investment and industrial policies continuing to shape trade flows and logistics demand
• The combination of policy changes and network adjustments suggests a more structural shift in trade patterns rather than short-term volatility

Overall, the market is transitioning into a more balanced phase, where both pricing and capacity are being actively managed by carriers, while external policy factors begin to play a more visible role in shaping demand.

Industry Trends