TP Trade Update April Momentum Builds with Controlled Capacity

The Transpacific market is showing a clearer shift compared to February softness the first half of April. Carriers are taking a more disciplined approach on both pricing and capacity, with GRIs gaining better traction and blank sailings being used more strategically. While overall space is still available, we are starting to see tightening signals on certain corridors, particularly into USEC and PNW, indicating a more balanced supply-demand situation developing.

Rate Trend Outlook First Half of April

• April 1 GRI has been largely implemented across the market, with relatively stable acceptance, reflecting stronger carrier control compared to previous attempts
• A second round of GRI is scheduled in early April, showing continued intent from carriers to push rates upward and maintain market support
• Emergency Fuel Surcharge is expected to be introduced in early to mid April, applicable to both FAK and fixed contracts depending on carrier structure
• U.S. domestic fuel-related surcharges are increasing further, which will have a direct impact on inland delivery costs
• Compared to March, the market is moving out of a correction phase into a more controlled recovery, with carriers actively defending rate levels

Capacity Outlook and Space Situation

• A total of 27 blank sailings recorded across WK14 to WK17, mainly impacting PSW, USEC and PNW lanes
• PSW remains the most disrupted corridor, driven primarily by alliance-level adjustments from OA and PA
• USEC and PNW are showing early signs of tightness, although not yet at critical levels
• Carriers under allocation schemes are releasing space more cautiously, making bookings more selective rather than fully open
• Exit of niche carriers such as Sealead and ESL has removed marginal capacity from the market
• No major service expansions observed, indicating carriers are prioritizing yield stability over aggressive capacity deployment

Other Market Influencing Factors

• China’s revised Maritime Law will come into effect on May 1, introducing clearer liability on unclaimed cargo, which may increase operational risks on certain shipments
• China and Canada have adjusted tariff measures on selected commodities, potentially supporting specific trade flows while maintaining overall policy balance
• Canada’s quota system on EV imports and relief measures on industrial goods reflect ongoing trade policy adjustments
• The U.S. has initiated a Section 301 investigation into manufacturing capacity, which could lead to further trade measures depending on outcomes in the coming months
• On the macro side, demand remains steady with gradual improvement in inventory restocking across North America, supporting a more stable market compared to earlier in the year

Overall, the market direction is shifting towards stabilization, with carriers actively managing both supply and pricing to avoid further volatility.

We will continue to monitor developments closely and keep sharing timely updates to support your planning and pricing decisions.

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